[求助]利润最大化博弈模型

karrol

<p>利润最大化博弈模型<br/>夏天,有两个小摊贩A和B想要在一个500米长的海滨游泳场的沙滩上设摊出售饮料,但需要每日交纳特许经营费1000元和必须花费500元回收饮料废纸盒垃圾,由于天气等因素,每日沙滩上的人数是不确定的,且每个人由于距离饮料摊位的远近不同愿意来购买的意愿也是不同的。为了实现各自的利润最大化，在信息完全对称的情况下，需要从海滨游泳场管理者提供的允许设摊的位置中进行最优位置选择。小摊贩A可供选择的位置为125米、175米和250米三处，而小摊贩B可供选择的位置为250米、300米和375米三处。请建立一个模拟模型对A和B设摊的位置进行博弈分析。<br/>经过调查分析,晴天的概率为80%,如果是雨天则沙滩上将没有人,如果是晴天,则沙滩上每一米处有5到13人。沙滩上的经验统计表明，每个人根据距离饮料摊位的距离不同，意愿购买一次的概率见调查表。假设,小摊贩A和B每盒饮料的批发价都为1.88元,零售价统一为3.5元。<br/>请通过模拟模型的计算结果，填写选择不同位置对策时的支付矩阵表。表中交叉点单元格内为小摊贩A和B在此位置上设摊可获得的各自利润值（不考虑税收）。根据填写好的对策支付矩阵表，请回答：<br/>1。小摊贩A和B应该设摊在什么位置？<br/>2。如果允许小摊贩A收购小摊贩B，那么小摊贩A最高可出多少收购额？小摊贩B是否会同意？如果收购成功，此时小摊贩A和B又应该设摊在什么位置？</p><p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="184" border="0" style="WIDTH: 138pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse;"><colgroup><col width="109" style="WIDTH: 82pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3488;"></col><col width="75" style="WIDTH: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2400;"></col></colgroup><tbody><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl27" width="184" colspan="2" height="38" rowspan="2" style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 138pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 28.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">表:消费者根据距离购买意愿的先验概率分布</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><font face="宋体"></font></tr><tr height="20" style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;"><td class="xl33" width="109" height="40" rowspan="2" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 82pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 30pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">沙滩消费者距离摊位的位置</font></td><td class="xl31" width="75" rowspan="2" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 56pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">购买人数的概率</font></td></tr><tr height="20" style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;"><font face="宋体"></font></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">0-50</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">95%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">50-100</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">85%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">100-150</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">75%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">150-200</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">65%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">200-250</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">55%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">250-300</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">45%</font></td></tr><tr height="20" style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;"><td class="xl25" height="20" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">300-350</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">35%</font></td></tr><tr height="20" style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset;"><td class="xl25" height="20" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">350-400</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">25%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">400-450</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">15%</font></td></tr><tr height="19" style="HEIGHT: 14.25pt;"><td class="xl25" height="19" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">450-500</font></td><td class="xl26" align="right" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><font face="宋体">5%</font></td></tr></tbody></table></p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-6-16 22:39:55编辑过]